10-Year Fire Frequency Map
Zambia • Tanzania • Malawi • Mozambique
MODIS MCD64A1  |  500m  |  2015–2024

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Fire Frequency  (months burned / 10 yrs)
Low
1-2
Moderate
3-4
High
5-6
Extreme
9+
Study area boundary
Neighboring countries
Source: NASA MODIS MCD64A1 v061
Combined annual burned area — all 4 countries
0k190k380k571k761k15679k16644k17608k18593k19609k20556k21557k22607k23536k24529kMean 592.0k
Monthly fire climatology (10-year mean 2015–2024)
0k47k95k142k190kJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugPeakSepOctNovDec
10-yr Mean
592.0k
km² / year
Peak Month
Sep
dry season peak
Peak Year
2015
highest burn
Study Area
4 Countries
ZM • TZ • MW • MZ
Annual burned area per country (000 km²)
0k69k138k206k275k15161718192021222324ZambiaTanzaniaMalawiMozambique
Zambia
Peak: 2015  (245k km²)
219k
km² / yr avg
Tanzania
Peak: 2015  (129k km²)
100k
km² / yr avg
Malawi
Peak: 2016  (5k km²)
4k
km² / yr avg
Mozambique
Peak: 2022  (209k km²)
187k
km² / yr avg
Burned area: country × year  (000 km²)
Country'15'16'17'18'19'20'21'22'23'24Total
Zambia245k240k215k215k226k207k203k222k200k220k2197k
Tanzania129k124k101k94k102k98k99k88k82k81k1002k
Malawi5k5k4k5k4k4k3k5k3k3k45k
Mozambique204k184k177k198k185k176k181k209k176k176k1870k
All 4584k555k498k513k519k487k487k525k462k482k5116k
Values in 000 km²  |  Source: NASA MODIS MCD64A1 v061
Peak fire season (Jul–Oct) CO column density per country
Sentinel-5P TROPOMI  |  ~7km  |  2018–2024
26.99933.58440.16946.75453.33918192021222324ZambiaTanzaniaMalawiMozambique
NO₂ tropospheric column (fire season)
12.97220.38427.79535.20642.61818192021222324ZambiaTanzaniaMalawiMozambique
Absorbing Aerosol Index — smoke plume intensity
0.0000.2500.5000.7501.00018192021222324ZambiaTanzaniaMalawiMozambique
Fire-season mean emissions summary per country
Zambia
CO: 42.3018 mmol/m²NO₂: 33.2976 µmol/m²AAI: -0.462
Tanzania
CO: 33.5628 mmol/m²NO₂: 16.9303 µmol/m²AAI: -0.717
Malawi
CO: 37.5328 mmol/m²NO₂: 22.4574 µmol/m²AAI: -0.733
Mozambique
CO: 37.2059 mmol/m²NO₂: 28.1846 µmol/m²AAI: -0.592
Data: Copernicus S5P TROPOMI OFFL | CO, NO₂, AAI | GEE
Annual forest cover loss per country (km²)
Hansen GFC v1.11  |  30m  |  Tree cover ≥25% (2000 baseline)
0k1k2k3k5k151617181920212223ZambiaTanzaniaMalawiMozambique
Cumulative forest loss 2015–2023 (000 km²)
0.17.314.521.728.9151617181920212223ZambiaTanzaniaMalawiMozambique
Country summary — total loss 2015–2023
Zambia
Forest 2000: 319,524 km²  |  Peak loss: 2021
19255 km²
6.026% lost
Tanzania
Forest 2000: 346,563 km²  |  Peak loss: 2023
18284 km²
5.276% lost
Malawi
Forest 2000: 22,453 km²  |  Peak loss: 2023
1683 km²
7.497% lost
Mozambique
Forest 2000: 380,585 km²  |  Peak loss: 2017
25153 km²
6.609% lost
Data: Hansen GFC v1.11 | UMD via GEE | 30m resolution
Cross-validated with peer-reviewed literature
✓  Peak fire season: July–October
Fires peak in early austral dry season across all 4 countries. Tanzania miombo woodlands peak in July; Zambia savanna peaks Aug–Sep.
[NASA Earth Observatory; Carbon Balance & Mgmt, 2015]
✓  Zambia & Mozambique: global fire hotspots
Zambia ranked 3rd globally — 86.6% of national area burned (2001–2020). Mozambique ranked 4th (73.5%). Combined 10-yr burned area >1.2M km².
[PLoS ONE, 2025]
✓  Savanna & miombo drive recurrence
Up to 50.6% of Tanzania miombo burns annually. Woody savanna shows highest fire recurrence across all 4 countries.
[Carbon Balance & Mgmt, 2015]
✓  Anthropogenic fire management
~70% of Kafue NP burns annually via early dry-season management burns. Cropland mosaics in Malawi & Mozambique show elevated recurrence.
[NASA MODIS Gallery, 2023]
✓  Declining long-term trend
Sub-Saharan Africa: ~36,000 km²/yr decline (2001–2020), driven by agricultural expansion replacing traditional burning.
[PLoS ONE, 2025]
Prepared by: Ujjwal Kumar Swain  •  ujjwalks.iirs@gmail.com  •  +91 7978641480  •  NASA MODIS + Copernicus S5P + Hansen GFC via GEE